Polymarket Validation: The SentimentAlpha MCP server provides six oracle tools for AI agents. These pages track the Edge Calculator’s live predictions against Polymarket outcomes — public, unedited proof of whether the oracles produce a tradeable edge. View MCP manifest →

Live Market Dashboard

Polymarket Signal Logger • Edge Calculator v2 • Updated as markets are scanned and resolved

Markets Tracked
40
AI Disagrees
8
Would Bet
3
Resolved
6
AI Accuracy
N/A
Market Accuracy
33.3%
Bet Accuracy
N/A
Last Scan Cost
Early data — 6/40 resolved. Need ~20+ resolutions to draw conclusions. AI: N/A% vs Market: 33.3%. View full backtest →

Bet Signals — AI Disagrees With Market (0/0 correct)

MarketMkt PriceAI SaysGapEdgeResult
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET 50% Yes No (28%) -22.5% 40
Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California G… 3% Yes No (18%) +14.6% 41
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian… 94% Yes Yes (83%) -11.5% 45

All Signals (40 tracked)

MarketMktAIGapSideEdgeSignalResult
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 2PM ET 50% 28% -22.5% No 39 DISAGREE
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary? 19% 13% -6.5% No 44 skip
Will GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulga… 22% 38% +16.0% No 29 skip
Toronto FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5 55% 50% -4.5% none 25 skip
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET 50% 50% 0.0% none 26 skip
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET 50% 50% 0.0% none 21 skip
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET 50% 50% 0.0% none 29 skip
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET 50% 28% -22.5% No 40 BET
Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 Califor… 3% 18% +14.6% No 41 BET
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET 50% 28% -22.5% No 39 DISAGREE
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or high… 0% 8% +7.5% No 45 skip
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulg… 94% 83% -11.5% Yes 45 BET
FC Anyang vs. FC Seoul: O/U 2.5 47% 50% +3.5% none 20 skip
Will FC Nordsjælland vs. Brøndby IF end in a draw? 28% 50% +22.0% none 21 skip
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET 50% 50% 0.0% none 24 skip Up
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 30 above $190? 0% 50% +50.0% none 20 skip No
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first… 34% 73% +38.5% Yes 39 DISAGREE
Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026? 4% 57% +53.7% none 24 skip
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on April … 0% 28% +27.4% No 33 skip
Will Will Boyd win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic… 2% 18% +15.4% No 39 skip
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 millio… 25% 73% +48.0% Yes 35 DISAGREE
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) finish with the … 0% 8% +7.4% No 45 skip
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day b… 5% 8% +2.5% No 47 skip
Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April? 31% 50% +19.5% none 20 skip
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET 50% 50% 0.0% none 29 skip Down
Will CA Barracas Central vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw… 35% 57% +23.0% none 24 skip No
Will Leland Olinger II win the 2026 Georgia Governor Re… 0% 8% +7.3% No 43 skip
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the worl… 23% 28% +5.0% No 35 skip
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel o… 90% 93% +2.5% Yes 71 skip
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April… 96% 88% -8.2% Yes 68 skip
Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30? 99% 55% -43.8% none 28 skip
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026… 1% 83% +82.0% Yes 39 DISAGREE
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 4? 22% 73% +50.5% Yes 29 DISAGREE
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 20… 38% 50% +12.5% none 15 skip
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner 81% 50% -30.5% none 21 skip Team Liquid
Will Leland Olinger II win the 2026 Georgia Governor Re… 0% 8% +7.3% No 43 skip
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? 37% 50% +13.0% none 25 skip
Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5) 26% 50% +24.0% none 20 skip EC Bahia
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by Ap… 28% 83% +55.0% Yes 39 DISAGREE
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? 1% 40% +39.5% none 26 skip
Phase 1 — signal logging only, no real money traded. Comparing AI signals vs Polymarket prices to determine if a tradeable edge exists. Crons: scan 2pm UTC, resolve 6pm UTC. Cost: ~$0.15/scan.