Polymarket Validation: The SentimentAlpha MCP server provides six oracle tools for AI agents. These pages track the Edge Calculator’s live predictions against Polymarket outcomes — public, unedited proof of whether the oracles produce a tradeable edge. View MCP manifest →

Live Market Dashboard

Polymarket Signal Logger • Edge Calculator v2 • Updated as markets are scanned and resolved

Markets Tracked
100
AI Disagrees
5
Would Bet
2
Resolved
47
AI Accuracy
21.4%
Market Accuracy
89.4%
Bet Accuracy
N/A
Last Scan Cost
—
No edge yet. AI accuracy (21.4%) is not beating market accuracy (89.4%) across 47 resolved markets.

Bet Signals — AI Disagrees With Market (0/0 correct)

MarketMkt PriceAI SaysGapEdgeResult
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatoria… 83% Yes Yes (99%) +15.9% 54 —
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? 65% Yes Yes (88%) +23.7% 46 —

All Signals (100 tracked)

MarketMktAIGapSideEdgeSignalResult
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,00… 31% 37% +5.7% none 33 skip —
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz … 1% 1% -0.5% none 13 skip —
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by Apr… 3% 1% -1.5% none 35 skip —
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governo… 11% 1% -9.5% No 34 skip —
Will France strike Iran by April 30? 1% 1% +0.5% none 14 skip —
Will the National People’s Party (NPEP) win the most se… 0% 1% +0.9% none 37 skip —
Will the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) win the most … 0% 1% +0.9% none 21 skip —
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,00… 1% 1% -0.1% none 38 skip —
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee fo… 3% 1% -2.3% none 17 skip —
Will Ja’Mel Brown win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democra… 2% 1% -0.7% none 30 skip —
Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Leban… 1% 1% +0.1% none 34 skip —
Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democr… 1% 1% +0.2% none 58 skip —
Spread: AEK (-2.5) 52% 52% 0.0% none 12 skip —
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April? 21% 1% -19.5% No 27 skip —
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.50% (HIGH) in April? 9% 1% -7.5% none 38 skip —
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on Ap… 3% 1% -2.4% none 26 skip —
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-F… 92% 98% +5.7% none 21 skip —
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by Apri… 7% 1% -6.0% none 30 skip —
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in April 2026? 5% 1% -4.0% none 18 skip —
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum p… 27% 33% +6.3% none 37 skip —
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30? 6% 1% -5.0% none 22 skip —
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? 14% 10% -5.0% none 19 skip —
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April? 1% 1% -0.1% none 30 skip —
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? 85% 99% +14.2% Yes 39 skip —
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? 6% 1% -4.6% none 20 skip —
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most Lond… 5% 1% -4.1% none 29 skip —
Will Abraham Enriquez be the Republican Nominee for TX-… 8% 1% -7.2% none 31 skip —
Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom … 13% 4% -8.3% No 39 skip —
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30? 3% 1% -2.4% none 22 skip —
Will Ben Midgely win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican… 7% 1% -6.0% none 23 skip —
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finne… 38% 38% 0.0% none 31 skip —
Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026? 8% 3% -5.3% none 18 skip —
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? 0% 1% +0.7% none 42 skip —
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? 1% 1% -0.1% none 23 skip —
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? 17% 12% -5.0% none 17 skip —
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? 0% 1% +0.7% none 35 skip —
Will Darren Helton receive the most votes in the CA-11 … 0% 1% +0.8% none 35 skip —
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? 6% 1% -4.6% none 49 skip —
Will Christina Loren Clement be the Republican nominee … 0% 1% +0.8% none 19 skip —
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5 80% 85% +5.2% none 15 skip —
Will Jack Ellison be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? 5% 1% -3.7% none 14 skip —
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran… 28% 54% +25.5% Yes 36 DISAGREE —
Will Darren Helton receive the most votes in the CA-11 … 0% 1% +0.8% none 35 skip —
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026? 7% 1% -5.5% none 27 skip —
Will Choi In-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? 0% 1% +0.8% none 36 skip —
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be between $110… 14% 14% 0.0% none 12 skip —
Will Kim Wan-seop win the 2026 Gangwon Province guberna… 0% 1% +0.8% none 37 skip —
Will Kyle Little be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? 2% 1% -1.1% none 18 skip —
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? 11% 1% -10.5% No 26 skip —
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? 17% 10% -6.7% none 14 skip —
Will Greg Plucinski be the Republican Nominee for KY-06… 5% 1% -3.5% none 25 skip —
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Cro… 18% 1% -17.1% No 17 skip —
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in April 2026? 5% 5% 0.0% none 12 skip —
Will Tricia Pridemore be the Republican nominee for GA-… 37% 27% -10.0% No 16 skip —
Will Kim Young-choon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Electio… 0% 1% +0.7% none 37 skip —
Will Judith Nakamura win the 2026 New Mexico Governor R… 0% 1% +0.8% none 36 skip —
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz guberna… 83% 99% +15.9% Yes 54 BET —
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-… 88% 96% +8.3% Yes 40 skip —
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democrati… 89% 81% -7.5% none 18 skip —
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win the mos… 0% 1% +1.0% none 36 skip —
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of mont… 96% 99% +3.5% none 25 skip —
Will GERB-SDS win between 55-59 seats in the 2026 Bulga… 36% 44% +7.7% none 39 skip —
Will Chris Holder be the republican nominee for Senate … 0% 1% +0.9% none 36 skip —
Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Sen… 7% 1% -6.4% none 31 skip —
Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republic… 14% 1% -13.0% No 21 skip —
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30? 6% 1% -4.5% none 23 skip —
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? 1% 1% -0.1% none 35 skip —
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? 26% 30% +4.5% none 19 skip —
Will Scottish Green Party win the most seats in the 202… 0% 1% +0.9% none 35 skip —
Will Rick Temple be the Republican nominee for Senate i… 0% 1% +0.9% none 33 skip —
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50… 100% 76% -23.7% No 21 DISAGREE Yes
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by Ap… 24% 38% +14.0% Yes 23 DISAGREE —
Will Mullins McLeod win the 2026 South Carolina Governo… 12% 1% -10.5% No 27 skip —
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on Ap… 97% 99% +1.8% none 61 skip Yes
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,00… 6% 1% -5.0% none 27 skip —
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants… 23% 13% -10.5% No 17 skip —
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by Ap… 24% 38% +14.0% Yes 23 DISAGREE —
Will Kyle Fraser win Survivor Season 50? 0% 1% +1.0% none 34 skip —
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30? 6% 1% -4.9% none 21 skip —
Will Alan Bond win the NJ-11 special election? 0% 1% +0.9% none 19 skip No
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulg… 95% 99% +4.0% none 32 skip —
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,00… 13% 1% -11.5% No 20 skip Yes
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,00… 25% 25% 0.0% none 19 skip No
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? 11% 1% -10.4% No 22 skip —
Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Sen… 7% 1% -6.4% none 31 skip —
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 18? 51% 29% -22.2% No 27 DISAGREE Yes
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? 96% 99% +3.3% none 44 skip —
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2… 65% 88% +23.7% Yes 46 BET —
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican pr… 17% 1% -15.5% No 22 skip —
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to Apr… 2% 1% -0.8% none 55 skip No
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,00… 7% 1% -5.5% none 26 skip Yes
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulga… 3% 1% -1.6% none 33 skip —
Will Kweon Seong-dong win the 2026 Gangwon Province gub… 0% 1% +0.9% none 22 skip —
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,00… 26% 31% +5.0% none 25 skip No
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30? 6% 1% -4.9% none 21 skip —
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April? 11% 1% -10.0% No 26 skip —
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 1… 2% 1% -0.8% none 62 skip No
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? 1% 1% -0.3% none 32 skip —
Don Lemon charges dropped? 9% 4% -5.0% none 12 skip —
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decis… 1% 1% +0.5% none 43 skip —
Phase 1 — signal logging only, no real money traded. Comparing AI signals vs Polymarket prices to determine if a tradeable edge exists. Crons: scan 2pm UTC, resolve 6pm UTC. Cost: ~$0.15/scan.
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